Date:                               September 19 to 20, 2024

Topic:                              Predictive Synergies: Crisis Early Warning & Foresight

Opening Speech:        Prof. Dr. Carlo Masala (Professor of International Politics | Head of Project CCEW)                     

Organiser:                     Center for Crisis Early Warning (CCEW) | Kompetenzzentrum Krisenfrüherkennung (KompZ KFE)

Location:                       UniCasino at the University of the Bundeswehr Munich

We cordially invite you to our upcoming event, the CCEW Symposium 2024 on Predictive Synergies: Crisis Early Warning & Foresight, the fourth part of the event series organized and hosted by the Center for Crisis Early Warning.

This year's event will feature panel discussions on day one and three parallel interactive sessions on day two. Day two will blend live coding with qualitative assessments, letting participants apply their methods and techniques to predefined scenarios.
We look forward to stimulating discussions and an exchange of experiences that is enriching for all involved.

Registration

Registration for the event is open to all interested parties on day one. The number of participants on day 2 is limited.
Registration deadline: 02.09.2024

The registration fee for 19.09.2024 includes a welcome snack, a refreshment break, and an evening reception with a finger food buffet.

The registration fee for 20.09.2024 includes refreshment breaks and lunch.

Travel, accommodation, and additional meal expenses are not included in the registration fee and will incur additional costs.

More information

Below you will find all information about the CCEW Symposium 2024:

Call for Papers

 

Predictive Synergies: Crisis Early Warning & Foresight

We are pleased to announce the CCEW Symposium 2024. The fourth annual event, which will take place on September 19 to 20, is organized by the Center for Crisis Early Warning (CCEW) at the University of the Bundeswehr Munich.

The CCEW Symposium has three aims:

  1.  Strengthening interdisciplinary research to enhance predictive capabilities;

  2. Fostering data-driven strategies for crisis early warning and strategic foresight within conflict research;

  3. Establishing a collaborative space for academia, practitioners, and decision-makers.

This year's event will feature panel discussions on day 1 and three parallel interactive sessions on day 2. Day 2 will blend live coding with qualitative assessments, letting participants apply their methods and techniques to predefined scenarios.

Call for Papers

We invite empirical, conceptual and theoretical papers from scholars at all career stages that focus on addressing the following topics:

  • Data-driven methodologies to predict conflict and instability;
  • Innovative use of data sources in conflict research;
  • The use of unstructured data, for example, "text as data" and satellite data;
  • Applying strategic foresight techniques in risk assessment and conflict prevention.

Please submit your abstract (max. 300 words), including the authors' names, university affiliation/research institution and short biography of max. 100 words by June 17, 2024, here: Abstract submission

We will communicate the decision on the accepted contributions by July 08, 2024, at the latest.

The registration (deadline: September 02, 2024) and information regarding the participation fee can be found here: Registration

We are looking forward to your submissions.

Preliminary Schedule

Thursday, September 19:

  • Panel Sessions: 1.30 pm - 7 pm

  • Social Event: 7 pm - 9.30 pm

 

Friday, September 20:

  • Interactive Sessions: 9 am - 3 pm

 

All times are CET.

The Center

The CCEW is jointly funded by Germany’s Federal Ministry of Defence (MoD) and the Federal Foreign Office (FFO).

The CCEW seeks to develop innovative conceptual approaches and methods to improve crisis early warning systems.

The main tasks of the CCEW are:

  • Conducting quantitative crisis and conflict research using innovative conceptual and methodological approaches (predictive analytics); and
  • Helping the above federal ministries to predict and assess crises and conflicts to take appropriate preventive measures.

The research output of the CCEW benefits the digital crisis early warning systems used by MoD and FFO.

Venue

The CCEW Symposium 2024 will be held in person at the University of the Bundeswehr Munich in Neubiberg, Germany.

The event language is English.

Contact

Universität der Bundeswehr München

Center for Crisis Early Warning (CCEW) | Kompetenzzentrum Krisenfrüherkennung ( KompZ KFE)
Werner-Heisenberg-Weg 39
85577 Neubiberg

Germany

E-Mail: KompZKFE@unibw.de

The CCEW Symposium 2024 Program: Detailed Description of the Panel Topics

 

Day 1 | Research Panel Abstracts

 

Panel I: Novel Data-Driven Approaches in Predicting Violence

Chair: Paola Vesco, Uppsala University

In recent years, academic research has witnessed a remarkable surge in efforts to diversify and enhance approaches to forecasting armed conflict. This expansion encompasses many innovative methodologies, from the widespread adoption of Natural Language Processing (NLP) methods to extract valuable insights from textual data to geospatial techniques for discerning spatial patterns indicative of potential conflict zones. Additionally, various Machine Learning (ML) techniques, including but not limited to random forests and neural networks, have been increasingly employed to capture complex relationships and dynamics inherent in conflict prediction models. The panel investigates new data sources, modelling approaches and ways of improving transparency in detecting specific events.

 

Panel II: The Added Value of Strategic Foresight in Quantitative Conflict Research

Chair: TBD

A comprehensive crisis prevention process profits from data-driven early warning and substantial foresight methods. Strategic foresight methods for risk and resilience analysis in conflict prevention have gained more attention, and their strength particularly lies in strategic communication. While trend and scenario analysis are fairly popular methods, the methodological variety is not limited to that. Strategic foresight in conflict research encourages researchers, practitioners and decision-makers to profit from iterative, participatory and multidisciplinary discourse and the exploration of innovative approaches and methods. This panel investigates strategic foresight methods used in conflict research and its combination with data-driven early warning.

 

Panel III: Exploring the Multifaceted Repercussions of Conflict on Human Development

Chair: TBD

Conflict directly and indirectly affects people in multiple ways. The impact of armed conflict often goes beyond those groups directly involved in active conflict, leading to a larger part of the population being exposed to conflict consequences. These consequences cover a wider range of phenomena apart from direct physical harm and death – be it political instability, economic devastation, and social fragmentation. At the same time, the impact of conflict might expand to third parties through conflict spillover, including flight and migration movements. Applying successful strategies and measures to address the diverse impacts requires transparency and understanding of the conflicts’ complexity. This panel investigates the different impacts of conflict and exposure in conflict forecasting considerations and conflict resolution approaches.

Chatham House Rule

We are pleased to welcome you to our upcoming event. As part of the event, we would like to draw your attention to the application of the Chatham House Rule, which is mandatory for all participants.

The Chatham House Rule aims to promote an open dialogue among participants while maintaining confidentiality. The rule states that participants are free to discuss the contents of the event, but must not disclose the identity or affiliation of the speakers or participants. This allows participants to share their views and experiences honestly and openly, without fear of being traced or published.

As organizers, we want to ensure that all participants have the freedom to express their opinions and views without any consequences. We therefore ask all participants to adhere to the Chatham House Rule and treat their discussions confidentially.

We are confident that the application of the Chatham House Rule will help facilitate an open and productive discussion that will be of great benefit to all participants.

We thank you in advance for your cooperation and look forward to your participation at the CCEW Symposium 2024.

Directions

The CCEW Symposium 2024 will take place at the UniCasino of the University of the Bundeswehr Munich (UniBw M).

For visitors, access is only possible via the West Gate (Visitor Gate / Guard). Please identify yourself with your identity card or passport. The list of participants is available at the guardhouse.

 

By train

From Munich main station or Ostbahnhof you can take public transportation (MVV) directly to UniBw M. The subway line U5 and the suburban train S7 go to "Neuperlach Süd". From there, the bus lines 217 ("Bahnhof Unterhaching") or 199 ("Neubiberg, Campeon West") go directly to the bus stop "Universitätsstraße". The West Gate is within sight 100m south of the bus stop.

 

By car

Access to the CCEW Symposium 2023 by car is via the West Gate. Free parking is available in front of the building.

Please use the following information if you use the navigation system (depending on the manufacturer):

  • 85577 Neubiberg, intersection Universitätsstraße / Zwergerstraße
  • 85577 Neubiberg, intersection Fliegerhorststraße / Zwergerstraße
  • Fliegerhorststraße 1, 85577 Neubiberg 
  • Universitätsstraße 1, 85577 Neubiberg

 

By plane

From Munich Airport you can take public transportation (MVV) directly to UniBw M. The S-Bahn lines S1 and S8 go to "Ostbahnhof". From there you change to the subway line U5 or to the suburban train S7 to "Neuperlach Süd". Here the buses of the lines 217 ("Bahnhof Unterhaching") or 199 ("Neubiberg, Campeon West") go directly to the bus stop "Universitätsstraße". The West Gate is located 100m south of the bus stop within sight.

 

Public transport

Website of the Münchener Verkehrsgesellschaft: www.mvg.de (destination: "Neubiberg, Universitätsstraße'")

Campus map

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Munich: city map and sights/attractions

 

Here is the link to the Munich city map:  münchen.de Stadtplan

 

Here the link to the official city portal:  münchen.de

 

Impressions 2023

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Impressionen 2 - CCEW Symposium 2023.jpg

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Impressionen 5 - Symposium 2023.jpg

Picture: Nils Lange / CCEW

Contact us

If you have any questions, please send an Email to:

KompZKFE@unibw.de

Terms and conditions

The following terms and conditions set out the legal rules applicable to the CCEW Symposium 2024. Participants shall be bound by these terms and conditions upon registering for the Conference and are advised to read and understand these terms carefully before registering. The Organiser will not accept any conditions contradictory to or deviant from these general terms and conditions.

 

Organiser

Responsible for the organisation of the Conference is the University of the Bundeswehr Munich, Center for Crisis Early Warning, Building 33, on behalf of ITIS e.V. Werner-Heisenberg-Weg 39, 85577 Neubiberg, Germany.

Registration

Registration to the Conference must be done through the online registration system and is binding. The registration deadline is September 02, 2024. Participants will receive an automatic confirmation of the registration details. If you do not receive one, please send an email to KompZKFE@unibw.de to make sure that the organiser has received your registration. Registration will only be effective on receipt of the registration fee. Please notify any corrections to your registration immediately.

Fees and Payment Condition

The registration fee includes admission to the conference sessions, detailed program, morning and afternoon refreshment breaks, lunch and dinner (no drinks). Travel, accommodation and meal expenses are excluded from registration fees and result in additional expenses.

The participation fees are owed upon registration and are payable within 7 days following submission of the registration (but not later than September 10, 2024). After your registration fee has arrived at our bank account you will receive an automatic e-mail message that the transaction was successful. All payments are made in Euro.

Participation is not guaranteed until full payment of the registration fee is received.

The conference program may be subject to changes.

Payments will be refunded if the conference will be canceled by the organizer. In that case, the organizer will have no further liability to the client. Registrations remain valid if the conference has to be postponed.

Liability

The organiser assumes no liability for the currency, accuracy, and completeness of the conference materials and content. The organiser also accepts no responsibility for any damages to persons or property that may occur during the conference.

Photographs and Videos

The Organiser may free of charge and without the further consent of the participants use and release pictures, shots and videos taken of the participants and/or their works (such as posters, excerpts of presentations or lectures) during the Conference for reports of the Conference and announcement of events in future.

Privacy Policy

All personal data provided to the organiser during registration will be treated confidentially. The data will be used and stored for further processing and documentation purposes. The information will not be reused for any incompatible purpose. Data will be shared with authorised service providers as necessary for the successful execution of the conference. The organiser will only disclose information to third parties if necessary for the fulfilment of the above-mentioned purposes.

Severability Clause

If any provision of these Terms and Conditions is found to be invalid, the invalidity of that provision will not affect the validity of the remaining provisions of these Terms and Conditions, which shall remain in full force and effect.

Disputes

All agreements between the Organiser and the Participant and all disputes which may arise between the Organiser and the Participants shall be exclusively subject to German law. Court of jurisdiction shall be Munich.

Bank information details

Account Holder: ITIS e.V.   ·   Account No.: 27187376

Bank: Kreissparkasse München-Starnberg-Ebersberg   ·   Bank Code: 70250150

SWIFT-BIC: BYLADEM1KMS   ·   IBAN Code: DE50 7025 0150 0027 1873 76