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<FONT SIZE=5><B><P ALIGN="CENTER">A New Paradigm for Estimating Russian Force Requirements?<BR>
On Tsygichko's Model of Defense Sufficiency<P ALIGN="CENTER"></B></FONT>
<BR>
Reiner K. Huber and Gernot Friedrich<BR>
Institute of Applied Systems Science and Operations Research<BR>
University of the Federal Armed Forces University Munich<BR
Neubiberg, Germany<BR>and<BR>
Jaroslaw Lescszelowski<BR>
Military University of Technology, Warsaw, Poland<BR><BR>
Published in the Journal <I>European Security</I><BR>
Vol.8, No.3 (Autumn 1999)<BR>
pp.101-123<BR>
<BR>
<FONT SIZE=5><B>Abstract</B><BR></FONT></P>

The authors used a reconstruction of the 
presumed minimization algorithm underlying the Model of Defense Sufficiency 
proposed by Professor Tsygichko of the Russian Academy of Science 
and performed a series of computational experiments for testing 
the implications of different assumptions about strategic/operational/tactical 
mobility for Russian force requirements and the appropriate 
peacetime force deployment. To this end, they used Huber�s 
Stable Regional Force ratio concept to transform the threat probability 
estimates published by Tsygichko into regional defense potentials 
satisfying Russia�s security requirements vis-a-vis hypothetical 
threat potentials in the year 2010. The results of the experiments 
show that the adoption of Tsygichko�s defense sufficiently principle 
by Russian force planners would not only benefit Russia�s security 
and budget, it would also result in a increase in the security of 
Russia�s neighbors. They also indicate the need for super-regional 
arms control agreement in order to minimize the need for preventive 
military action by the international community in case of serious 
crises between Russia and her regional neighbors. The Caucasus, 
Central Asia, and the Far East represent the critical regions for 
long-term stability along Russia�s perimeter, especially since 
China�s cooperation is indispensable and, therefore, the cooperation 
of China�s regional neighbors as well.</P>

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Dokument: <A HREF="esmar99.pdf">esmar99</A> (PDF-Datei, 21 Seiten, 142 KB)

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