For intelligence services, the reliable prediction of future developments plays a prominent role in decision-making. The methods and perspectives of wargaming a play a crucial role. The research at CISS therefore focuses on the validation, application and further development of methods for the reliable analysis and prediction of security relevant events. Of particular interest are those of structural equation modelling, which, in addition to the prediction of events, makes it possible to uncover process-related relationships.

In addition, research focuses on the reliable and valid mapping and verification of phenomena that are not directly observable by means of composite modelling. Finally, the human decision-making behaviour in dealing with forecast information is also investigated. This also includes the ethical handling of the information obtained from the forecast, but also areas such as visualisation (maximum representation of information) and human information processing and distortion (dealing with uncertainty).

Contact: PD Dr rer. pol. Christian Nitzl