Publications

Publications for download

We provide our publications here for download. These publications are an essential part of our research work and offer important information/backgrounds and forecasts on various current topics.

Creating and Validating a Corpus and Dataset of Government-Issued Travel Advisories From the Internet Archives

Authors:
Laura Braun, Christian Oswald

Published online via SocArXiv:
December 17, 2025

Forests of Uncertaint(r)ees: Using tree-based ensembles to estimate probability distributions of future conflict

Authors:
Daniel Mittermailer, Tobias Bohne, Martin Hofer, Daniel Racek

Published online via arXiv:
December 5, 2025

Symposium Report 2025

Authors:
Sana Slouma, Lena Runge, Daniel Racek

Published online:
November, 2025

Listening to the wind of change: Predicting protest dynamics in autocracies using Wikipedia page changes

Authors:
Christian Oswald

Published online via SocArXiv:
October 09, 2025

TRAVELWARN-Crawler: Constructing longitudinal datasets of government-issued travel warnings for political and social science research

Authors:
Laura Braun, Christian Oswald

Published online via SocArXiv:
August 26, 2025

CCEW Symposium Report 2024

Authors:
Lena Runge

Published online:
June, 2025

Predicting the number of fatalities in armed conflict, with uncertainty

Authors CCEW:
Marco Binetti, Tobias Bohne, Sonja Häffner, Daniel Mittermaier, Christian Oswald, Julian Walterskirchen

Published online in Journal of Peace Research:
May 06, 2025

Automated information extraction from text variables in event datasets with large language models

Authors:
Laura Braun, Christian Oswald

Published online via SocArXiv:
March 21, 2025

The night before or the morning after: Coup risk, failed coup attempts, and minister removals in autocracies

Authors:
Christian Oswald,
Julian Walterskirchen,
Sonja Häffner, Marco Binetti, Christoph Dworschak

Published online via SocArXiv:
October 22, 2024

Predicting the Number of Fatalities in Armed Conflict, with Uncertainty

Authors CCEW:
Marco Binetti, Tobias Bohne, Sonja Häffner, Daniel Mittermaier, Christian Oswald, Julian Walterskirchen

Published online by Cornell University:
July 08, 2024

I still haven't found what I'm looking for: Predicting security-related incidents and conflict fatalities with Google Trends and Wikipedia data

Authors:
Christian Oswald

Published online via SocArXiv:
September 27, 2024

Text as Data for Crisis-Early Warning: A Comparative Assessment of NLP Methods for Conflict Prediction

Authors:
Julian Walterskirchen, Sonja Häffner

Published online via SocArXiv:
July 18, 2024

Taking time seriously: Predicting conflict fatalities using temporal fusion transformers

Authors:
Julian Walterskirchen, Sonja Häffner, Christian Oswald, Marco Binetti

Published online via SocArXiv:
July 11, 2024

Forests of UncertainT(r)ees: Using tree-based ensembles to estimate probability distributions of future conflict

Authors:
Daniel Mittermaier, Tobias Bohne, Martin Hofer

Published online:
June, 2024

Replication of The Morning After: Report from the Nottingham Replication Games

Authors:
Christian Oswald, Julian Walterskirchen, Sonja Häffner, Marco Nicola Binetti, Christoph Dworschak

Published online via SocArXiv:
July 03, 2023

Introducing an Interpretable Deep Learning Approach to Domain-Specific Dictionary Creation: A Use Case for Conflict Prediction

Authors:
Sonja Häffner, Martin Hofer,
Maximilian Nagl, Julian Walterskirchen

Published online by Cambridge University Press (Political Analysis):
March 22, 2023