The preliminary program for the Symposium on Crisis Early Warning

Please download the preliminary program as a PDF.

Wednesday 17.09.

08:15 – 09:00         Registration & Coffee

09:00 – 09:45        Welcome & Keynotes

                   State Minister Florian Hahn, Federal Foreign Office
                   State Secretary Nils Hilmer, Federal Ministry of Defence
                  Prof. Carlo Masala, Head, Center for Crisis Early Warning

09:45                          VIP Policy Panel: “Crisis Early Warning in times of perpetual crises – still worth it?”

                   Chair: Prof. Carlo Masala, Head, Center for Crisis Early Warning
                      Philipp Rotmann, Director, Global Public Policy Institute
                      Anka Feldhusen, Director for Civilian Crisis Prevention and Stabilization, FFO

followed by              Coffee Break

11:00 – 12:30             Research Panel I: “Leveraging Large Language Models in Crisis Early Warning”

                   Chair: Dr. Hannes Müller, Autonomous University Barcelona
                          Dr. Edoardo Vigano, Witten/Herdecke University
                          Dr. Egemen Bezci, University for Continuing Education Krems
                          Laura Braun, Center for Crisis Early Warning

12:30 – 13:30             Lunch

13:30 – 15:00            Research Panel II: “Advancing Methodological Approaches in Crisis Early Warning”

                   Chair: Dr. Paola Vesco, Uppsala University
                         Prof. Thomas Chadefaux, Trinity College Dublin
                       Chandler Williams, Peace Research Institute Oslo
                         BND Desk Officer

15:00 – 16:15             Workshops (parallel)

                   Session 1: Worst cases or likely cases? – The Integration of Foresight Methodologies and Data driven Early Warning
                   Session 2: Hybrid Threats – State-Targeted Cyber Attacks as Digital Smoke Before Escalation?
                   Session 3: Data driven Anticipatory Action

16:15 – 16:45             Coffee Break

16:45 – 17:45             Policy Panel I: “How to warn? – lessons and best practices”

                   Chair: Isabelle Arradon, International Crisis Group
                         Andreas Pérez Fransius, European External Action Service
                       Minako Manome, Development Risk Practice Unit, UNDP
                        Dr. Philip AbdelMalik, Hub for Pandemic and Epidemic Intelligence, WHO

17:45 – 19:00            Canapés & Fingerfood (Genscher Forum)

Thursday 18.09.

08:15 – 09:00          Check-in & Coffee

09:00 – 09:15          Welcome

09:15 – 10:45            Research Panel III: “Conflict Onset and Civil War Recurrence in Crisis Early Warning”

                   Chair: Dr. Nadine O’Shea, Technical University of Munich
                       Lotta Rüter, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
                       Hannah Frank, Trinity College Dublin
                       Dr. Namig Abbasov, Arizona State University

10:45 – 11:00            Coffee Break

11:00 – 12:15            Workshops (parallel)

                   Session 4: Central Risk Factors in Early Warning
                  Session 5: Think Like an Adversary – A Practical Exploration of the Disruptive Potential of AI
                   Session 6: Pimp My Dataset – Enhancing Existing Event Datasets with Large Language Models

12:15 – 12:30              Plenary Workshop Recap

12:30 – 13:30             Lunch

13:30 – 14:15              Policy Panel II: “Global Commons or national silos? Informed decisions through common datasets”

                   Chair: Anka Feldhusen, Dir. for Civilian Crisis Prevention and Stabilization, FFO Dr. Martin Frick, World Food Program
                        Prof. Clionadh Raleigh, Armed Conflict Location & Event Data
                        Dr. Barbora Šedová, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

14:15 – 15:45              Research Panel IV: “Exploring New Data in Crisis Early Warning”

                   Chair: Prof. Melanie Sauter, Universität Mannheim
                      Christoph Deppe, Helmut Schmidt University
                        Dr. Allison Koh, University of Birmingham
                        Dr. Anne Schneibel, German Aerospace Center

15:45 – 16:00            Closing Remarks: Anka Feldhusen, Federal Foreign Office