Day 1 | Research Panel Abstracts


Panel I: Novel Data-Driven Approaches in Predicting Violence

Chair: Paola Vesco, Uppsala University

In recent years, academic research has witnessed a remarkable surge in efforts to diversify and enhance approaches to forecasting armed conflict. This expansion encompasses many innovative methodologies, from the widespread adoption of Natural Language Processing (NLP) methods to extract valuable insights from textual data to geospatial techniques for discerning spatial patterns indicative of potential conflict zones. Additionally, various Machine Learning (ML) techniques, including but not limited to random forests and neural networks, have been increasingly employed to capture complex relationships and dynamics inherent in conflict prediction models. The panel investigates new data sources, modelling approaches and ways of improving transparency in detecting specific events.


Panel II: The Added Value of Strategic Foresight in Quantitative Conflict Research

Chair: TBD

A comprehensive crisis prevention process profits from data-driven early warning and substantial foresight methods. Strategic foresight methods for risk and resilience analysis in conflict prevention have gained more attention, and their strength particularly lies in strategic communication. While trend and scenario analysis are fairly popular methods, the methodological variety is not limited to that. Strategic foresight in conflict research encourages researchers, practitioners and decision-makers to profit from iterative, participatory and multidisciplinary discourse and the exploration of innovative approaches and methods. This panel investigates strategic foresight methods used in conflict research and its combination with data-driven early warning.


Panel III: Exploring the Multifaceted Repercussions of Conflict on Human Development

Chair: TBD

Conflict directly and indirectly affects people in multiple ways. The impact of armed conflict often goes beyond those groups directly involved in active conflict, leading to a larger part of the population being exposed to conflict consequences. These consequences cover a wider range of phenomena apart from direct physical harm and death – be it political instability, economic devastation, and social fragmentation. At the same time, the impact of conflict might expand to third parties through conflict spillover, including flight and migration movements. Applying successful strategies and measures to address the diverse impacts requires transparency and understanding of the conflicts’ complexity. This panel investigates the different impacts of conflict and exposure in conflict forecasting considerations and conflict resolution approaches.